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Global Food Prices Hold Steady in August as Cereal Output Hits Record High
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The FAO Food Price Index held steady in August 2025, averaging 130.1 points, a slight rise from July’s 130.0 and 6.9% higher year-on-year, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
The balance was driven by mixed movements:
- 📈 Vegetable oils rose 1.4% to a three-year high, led by palm, sunflower, and rapeseed oils, influenced by Indonesia’s biodiesel plans.
- 📉 Cereals declined 0.8%, with wheat falling due to large EU and Russian harvests, though maize rose on stronger U.S. demand for feed and ethanol.
- 📈 Meat increased 0.6% to a new record, fueled by U.S. and Chinese demand boosting exports from Australia and Brazil.
- 📉 Dairy dropped 1.3% amid weaker Asian demand.
- 📈 Sugar ticked up 0.2% after five months of decline, reflecting production worries in Brazil and strong import demand.
Record Cereal Harvest Expected in 2025
FAO projects global cereal production at 2.96 billion tonnes in 2025, the highest ever and 3.5% above last year.
Key highlights:
- 🌽 Maize output expected at 1.6 billion tonnes (+5.9%), with strong harvests in Brazil and the U.S.
- 🌾 Wheat production forecast at 804.9 million tonnes (+0.8%), despite weaker yields in China.
- 🍚 Rice production projected to hit 555.5 million tonnes (+1%), driven by expansions in India, Indonesia, and Brazil.
Cereal stocks are forecast to reach 898.7 million tonnes by 2026, ensuring a 30.6% stocks-to-use ratio, signaling healthy supply.
Rising Fertilizer Costs Pose Risks
The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) warned that nitrogen fertilizer prices are rising, making them less affordable compared to crop prices. This could reduce fertilizer use in some regions, potentially impacting future yields.
Outlook
The global food market remains stable, with strong cereal supplies offsetting volatility in meat, oil, and sugar markets. However, fertilizer costs and climate risks could reshape the outlook for 2026.
The FAO Food Price Index held steady in August 2025, averaging 130.1 points, a slight rise from July’s 130.0 and 6.9% higher year-on-year, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
The balance was driven by mixed movements:
- 📈 Vegetable oils rose 1.4% to a three-year high, led by palm, sunflower, and rapeseed oils, influenced by Indonesia’s biodiesel plans.
- 📉 Cereals declined 0.8%, with wheat falling due to large EU and Russian harvests, though maize rose on stronger U.S. demand for feed and ethanol.
- 📈 Meat increased 0.6% to a new record, fueled by U.S. and Chinese demand boosting exports from Australia and Brazil.
- 📉 Dairy dropped 1.3% amid weaker Asian demand.
- 📈 Sugar ticked up 0.2% after five months of decline, reflecting production worries in Brazil and strong import demand.
Record Cereal Harvest Expected in 2025
FAO projects global cereal production at 2.96 billion tonnes in 2025, the highest ever and 3.5% above last year.
Key highlights:
- 🌽 Maize output expected at 1.6 billion tonnes (+5.9%), with strong harvests in Brazil and the U.S.
- 🌾 Wheat production forecast at 804.9 million tonnes (+0.8%), despite weaker yields in China.
- 🍚 Rice production projected to hit 555.5 million tonnes (+1%), driven by expansions in India, Indonesia, and Brazil.
Cereal stocks are forecast to reach 898.7 million tonnes by 2026, ensuring a 30.6% stocks-to-use ratio, signaling healthy supply.
Rising Fertilizer Costs Pose Risks
The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) warned that nitrogen fertilizer prices are rising, making them less affordable compared to crop prices. This could reduce fertilizer use in some regions, potentially impacting future yields.
Outlook
The global food market remains stable, with strong cereal supplies offsetting volatility in meat, oil, and sugar markets. However, fertilizer costs and climate risks could reshape the outlook for 2026.
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